Saied’s Stagnation: The Unfulfilled Promise of Tunisian Democracy

Five years have passed since President Kais Saied suspended Tunisia’s parliament. Initially hailed as a bold step towards constitutional reform, his power grab has led to stagnation and repression instead. Despite the optimism surrounding Saied’s intentions in 2021, Tunisia is now no better off than it was before.

The economic benefits of consolidation promised by Saied have failed to materialize. Real GDP growth and unemployment rates remain unchanged since 2018, while the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio has ballooned from 73% to over 81%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) subsidy reform program, which Saied rejected as “foreign diktats,” was a key component in stabilizing the economy and reducing debt.

Under Saied’s rule, human rights have taken a significant hit. Tunisia’s Freedom House score has plummeted from 70 to 42 between 2020 and 2026, reflecting a drastic decline in civil liberties. The arrest of virtually all political party leaders was followed by a crackdown on civil society leaders and the press, marking a turning point in this downward spiral.

The international community had initially expressed hope for Saied’s intentions. However, as time passed, it became clear that his actions were not aligned with democratic principles. The US government responded by slashing military assistance allocations by 50%, a move seen as a signal of disapproval.

As Ambassador to Tunisia, I witnessed firsthand the crisis in February 2023, when nearly all political party leaders were arrested. This was followed by a similar crackdown on civil society and the press, further eroding democratic institutions. The lack of clear direction from Saied’s administration has left officials scrambling to understand their president’s priorities.

Tunisia’s security sector is one notable exception to this trend. The country has received significant support from the US through grants, training, and exercises. This cooperation has paid off in the form of a nearly complete eradication of terrorist cells within the country. Building on this success could provide a way forward for the international community.

By expanding Tunisia’s security infrastructure with US support, the country can contribute to regional stability beyond its borders. This approach would be more cost-effective and welcome among African governments than an initiative driven solely by Washington.

As Tunisians look to the future, they will need a stable environment within their country and in their neighborhood. The international community must remain engaged on these fundamental goals, providing support that fosters stability and allows the Tunisian people to rebuild their lives.

Saied’s rule has been marked by stagnation and repression rather than progress towards democracy. While security cooperation remains a bright spot, the broader trend is one of decline in civil liberties and economic stagnation. As Tunisia approaches another critical juncture, it is imperative that the international community continues to support democratic institutions and stability, ultimately giving the Tunisian people the freedom to find their own path forward.