The Shadow of Western Sahara: How Europe’s North Africa Policy is Being Remade by Rabat and Algiers

The recent flurry of high-level visits between European governments and their counterparts in Morocco and Algeria has left many perplexed about the direction of policy in the Maghreb. A closer examination reveals a more complex dynamic at play – one driven by the contentious issue of Western Sahara.

For decades, the status of this disputed territory has been a source of tension between Morocco and Algeria, with each side backing opposing claims to sovereignty. As European governments become increasingly entangled in this rivalry, they’re discovering that supporting one country’s position comes at the cost of damaging relations with the other. This is no trivial matter – economic, diplomatic, and security cooperation hang precariously in the balance.

France’s decision to back Morocco’s sovereignty claim over Western Sahara in 2024 sent shockwaves through the region, sparking a crisis with Algeria that has yet to be fully resolved. The French government’s subsequent build-up of a strategic partnership with Rabat around this issue reflects a calculation that Morocco offers a more stable and reliable partner at a time when French influence has waned across much of West Africa.

This choice has had significant costs for France’s relations with Algeria, deepening existing tensions over colonial history, migration, and security. Security cooperation stalled, French companies faced growing obstacles, and French wheat was largely excluded from Algerian import tenders.

Spain too has found itself facing pressure after making a similar choice to back Morocco’s autonomy proposal over Western Sahara. The result: Algiers recalled its ambassador, suspended the friendship treaty with Madrid, and halted most non-gas trade – a move that sent Spanish exports plummeting.

European governments must recognize that supporting one country over another can have far-reaching implications for economic development, security cooperation, and even the livelihoods of ordinary people. This is not just a question of policy or diplomacy; it’s about real-world consequences.

In reality, Morocco and Algeria are not mutually exclusive options, but rather interlocking pieces in a complex puzzle. European governments must start thinking more strategically about their relationships with both countries – rather than simply chasing after short-term gains. They need to balance essential relationships with both Algiers and Rabat, acknowledging the long-term costs of supporting one country’s position over the other.

Madrid must find a way to balance its relationships with both Algiers and Rabat, while Paris needs to acknowledge the lasting impact of its 2024 decision on Western Sahara. For all European governments involved, it demands a more nuanced understanding of regional dynamics – one that takes into account the competing interests and claims of Morocco and Algeria.

The challenge ahead will not be easy to overcome. As the Maghreb continues to evolve, one thing is clear: Europe’s North Africa policy is being remade before our eyes by the shadow of Western Sahara.